Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos hire bodyguards OR food tasters by EOY 2029
Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos hire bodyguards OR food tasters by EOY 2029
Basic
1
Ṁ102030
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Andrej Karpathy hire bodyguards or food tasters by EOY 2029?
19% chance
Will Peter Thiel employ a food taster for him by EOY 2030?
26% chance
Will Yann LeCun hire bodyguards by 2030
40% chance
Will roon have to hire bodyguards by EOY 2029?
40% chance
Will Peter Thiel have regular bodyguards by EOY2032?
87% chance
Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos win a Darwin award by EOY 2040?
10% chance
Will Guillaume Verdon get a girlfriend by EOY 2029?
45% chance
Will a major AI-related CEO or AI researcher be revealed to hire a food/microplastic taster for them by EOY 2028?
18% chance
Will Sam Altman have at least one food taster by EOY2027?
43% chance
Will someone wear a BasedBeffJezos costume to an EAG conference by EOY2028
20% chance