Background

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly publishes key economic indicators including monthly jobs reports and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on a predetermined schedule.

Resolution Criteria

Market resolves YES if any of the following occur for either the monthly jobs report or CPI data:

• Publication is ordered to be stopped

• Publication is delayed due to policy decisions (not technical issues)

• Credible reports emerge of significant data manipulation

  • I will use my own judgment of credibility and significance based on my own knowledge of the data and the institutions that produce them

Market resolves NO if none of these events occur by market close.

Considerations

• The BLS has institutional safeguards and a long history of maintaining independence in data collection and publication

• While there is precedent for political interference with some government data (e.g., CDC reports), there is no documented history of direct interference with BLS economic indicators

• "Significant manipulation" would need to involve changes that materially affect the data's accuracy or interpretation, not just changes in methodology or presentation that are publicly announced and justified