Will NASA’s Artemis land the first woman and the first person of color on the moon?
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This is the stated goal of the Artemis program, per the NASA website (at time of posting).
Will NASA’s Artemis land the first woman and the first person of color on the moon?
Resolves YES once both milestones have been achieved. Resolves NO if any other country beats the USA to either of these milestones. Resolves NO if Artemis ends, or is canceled (evidenced by Artemis’ Wikipedia not having “present” listed as the Duration’s end).
“Person of color”, if controversial, will use NASA’s marketing materials (and any statements by the astronauts themselves) as Resolution criteria.
Market will extend, if needed.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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