
Will NASA’s Artemis land the first woman and the first person of color on the moon?
Basic
3
Ṁ792030
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is the stated goal of the Artemis program, per the NASA website (at time of posting).

Will NASA’s Artemis land the first woman and the first person of color on the moon?
Resolves YES once both milestones have been achieved. Resolves NO if any other country beats the USA to either of these milestones. Resolves NO if Artemis ends, or is canceled (evidenced by Artemis’ Wikipedia not having “present” listed as the Duration’s end).
“Person of color”, if controversial, will use NASA’s marketing materials (and any statements by the astronauts themselves) as Resolution criteria.
Market will extend, if needed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
When will a man land on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions?
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?
68% chance
Will NASA's Artemis program land astronauts on the moon by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?
2% chance
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
20% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
46% chance
Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?
14% chance
Will a woman walk on Mars before a woman is president of the United States?
49% chance
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?
3% chance