Will there be a riot against the ban on leaving Ukraine by the end of 2025?
Will there be a riot against the ban on leaving Ukraine by the end of 2025?
Basic
9
Ṁ2602026
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ukraine government banned men from leaving the country when the full scale Russian invasion began. Since then, lots of people have been trying to cross the boarder illegally. Some people drowned, or got lost in the mountains. There have been incidents when the border patrol shot people.
Resolves YES, if by the end of 2025 a protest or a riot against the ban happens. It must be big enough; I'm not sure how to properly define that and am open to suggestions. For now, say, there must be at least 1000 people, and it must draw worldwide(?) attention or lead to significant consequences.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
53% chance
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
79% chance
Will the war in Ukraine be officially over by december 2025 ?
57% chance
Will the war in Ukraine end by 2026
57% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?
81% chance
Will the Russia/Ukrainian war end before the end of 2025?
57% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war come to an end before February 2025?
1% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2025?
61% chance
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
4% chance