Background

Blanchardianism is a dogmatic ideology which asserts that there are two non-overlapping causes of male-to-female gender transition: effeminate homosexuality and autogynephilia.

In 2019, I released a study showing that some autogynephiles are attracted to men, while other autogynephiles identify as bi/gay without being attracted to men. Blanchardians mostly denied the former result, due to it contradicting e.g. the presumption that autogynephilia requires gynephilia.

Occasionally, Michael Bailey has been making noises about testing this. However, his vibes generally sound like they would simply test whether self-identified gay/bi men recruited from autogynephilic spaces are aroused by men, which my study already found that they weren't. Thus, it seems most likely he will not be testing via a method that could identify the gAyGPs which I claim exist.

This could in principle be fine, but he and his friends already have a history of scientific fraud (see 1, 2). Thus it seems plausible that after performing the study, he will misrepresent the results as if they were rebutting my study.

Resolution criteria

In order for this market to resolve YES, Michael Bailey must:

• Publish a study purporting to investigate androphilia (or homosexuality/bisexuality) among autogynephilic males

• Recruit in a way that we already know won't find many androphilic males (e.g. from predominantly autogynephilic groups)

• Fail to mention the possibility that recruiting in a better way would find gAyGPs, or bring up his study as a rebuttal to my blog post

If any of these criteria fail to be satisfied by 2032, the market resolves NO.