Will there be any children born in 2025 in the US, that do not receive the option of birthright citizenship?
Will there be any children born in 2025 in the US, that do not receive the option of birthright citizenship?
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Background On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order affecting birthright citizenship in the United States. The order states that children born to parents who are either unlawfully present or on temporary visas (such as H-1B, F-1, L-1) will not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if neither parent is a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident. This policy takes effect on February 19, 2025.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if at least one child is born in the United States during 2025 and is officially denied automatic citizenship under the executive order. The market will resolve NO if either:
The executive order is blocked, overturned, or otherwise does not take effect
No children are born in 2025 who are denied automatic citizenship under the order
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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