Will Ukraine cede any of its territory to Russia by 2025? [150M subsidy]
Will Ukraine cede any of its territory to Russia by 2025? [150M subsidy]
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Fatigue is falling across the Western World. Western powers have went from saying Russia must be seen to Fail to threatening to pull the plug.
Attrition in Ukraine is a slow game. Despite a few recent gains, and a few successful attacks on Crimea, apathy is still gaining traction. Perhaps if the West really does relent, we might be looking at a once inconceivable future where Ukraine is pushed into conceding territory to Russia.
Resolution criteria:
As it stands, Ukraine believes that all of its territory, including Crimea, is Ukrainian. If as part of any future agreement, by the end of 2024, Ukraine formally agrees to give any of its current territory (including Crimea) to Russia this will resolve Yes; otherwise No.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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