Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040?
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040?
➕
Plus
9
Ṁ827
2040
14%
chance

Explanation:

Effectively Cure in this context means that you will not die from diseases or aging.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before January 1, 2040:

  1. Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below

  2. This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.

Fine Print:

  • Annual mortality rate drop to 0.05% or below must be sustained for 12 consecutive months.

  • Age group buckets in CDC WONDER: 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84

Background:

Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):

  • Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)

  • Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)

  • Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)

  • If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.

  • The annual mortality rate figure measures population statistics (not a particular individual).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

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