Background George Soros is a 94-year-old Hungarian-American billionaire investor and philanthropist, born on August 12, 1930. He is the founder of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Foundations. As one of the world's most prominent investors and philanthropists, his health status and potential passing would likely have significant implications for his various organizations and initiatives.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if George Soros dies before June 1, 2025, at 12:00 AM ET. The market will resolve to NO if he is still alive at that time. Death must be confirmed by at least two reputable news sources or an official statement from his family or organizations.
Considerations
While Soros is of advanced age, he has maintained involvement in his philanthropic work and public appearances into his 90s
The market resolution date is relatively near-term (less than 6 months from January 2024)
False reports of celebrity deaths are common on social media - only official confirmations will be considered for resolution
1,000
3.00Actuarial life tables from ssa.gov give a 94-year-old male a 25% chance of dying in 1 year
Local Poisson approximation implies a random 94yo american man has an ~11% chance of dying by June
If Soros is 2x less healthy than this baseline, he's got a 23% chance of dying by June. If anything I think he's 2x healthier. Buy "NO".
@XTXinverseXTY
Model-implied prices if Soros is still alive by
Feb 1: 9%
Mar 1: 7%
Apr 1: 4.6%
May 1: 2.4%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00