Will January 2025 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled January in the Global table at this link.
1,000
3.00@ScottSupak the uncertainty is high enough in my models that 70 seems fine (for other markets also).... 90 seems overconfident, but CI wide enough not profitable enough I think for me to bet it down
@ScottSupak @parhizj or even 73% + 24% + 2% = 99% at Poly
Or arbitrage (imperfect re different data but ): buy here at 79% and sell 72% and 21% at
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-january
NCEI:
With zero offset:
NOAA TEMP anomaly projection (January 2025) (corrected, assuming -0.110 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.101)):
1.325 C +-0.089
GISTEMP:
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (January 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.066 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.145)):
1.354 C +-0.077
NCEI has a slightly larger (0.044 C) correction downwards for January from ERA than GISTEMP in my model but its record from last year is 0.04 C higher (1.29 vs 1.25), yet the temps are also about 0.03C apart in the prediction so they are fairly consistent.
The uncertainty in these markets is as usual dominated by the excessive precision demanded from the market questions relative to the uncertainty in the data itself.
However, looking at uncertainty in remaining month's temps for ERA5 (as in GISTEMP), I think a ~ 10% swing either way in the middle point for the question (representing a +-0.1 C swing in the average GEFS error) once the month concludes seems possible to me (i.e. roughly a swing to 55-75% as the final middle point seems possible). The wide CI though dominates this as I said.
The month to beat is January 2024, with an anomaly of 1.29°C. From this chart of daily surface air temperature we can see that the first half of this month has been warmer than last year and also that, on average, temperatures tend to rise after this part of the month.
@cherrvak The trend for temperatures for every January tending to rise at the end of the month applies to last year also so that doesn't really matter, but each year's temperatures have quite a bit of variability from the trend, and even though I agree it's more likely now than not the forecast from GEFS does show a bit of a dip up near the end of the month whereas last year it was a more steady rise until the end of January.
My chart for GEFS-BC forecasts (6hour averages) adjusted to ERA5:
