Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?
Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?
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I saw this tweet by Pedro Domingos and thought to myself, "one of those things is an implicit prediction."
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Not quite sure I understand what this is asking. Does this resolve to YES if either OpenAI or Anthropic ever has a lower valuation between now and the end of 2030 than it did at the end of 2023?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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