When will an exomoon be discovered?
When will an exomoon be discovered?
Basic
6
Ṁ9412051
1%
before the end of 2024
13%
before the end of 2025
25%
before the end of 2026
34%
before the end of 2027
41%
before the end of 2028
50%
before the end of 2029
59%
before the end of 2030
66%
before the end of 2035
72%
before the end of 2040
83%
before the end of 2045
88%
before the end of 2050
98.4%
before the end of year 100000
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
10mo
Never
What does this option mean? Resolves NO when one is discovered, resolves YES never (or if we can somehow prove there are none)?
bought Ṁ5 before the end of 2040 YES10mo
Ok, I like "before the end of year 100000" better because it also avoids flipping the yes/no
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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