Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?
Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?
Basic
19
Ṁ8132031
78%
Day care workers
66%
strip dancer
63%
Plumbers
59%
Burglary
59%
Academic Reseacher
55%
Public company CEO
55%
hairdresser
44%
Bus driver
40%
taxi driver
30%
Customer Service Chat Agents
28%
supermarket cashier
21%
Call center workers
19%
Data Entry Clerks
Resolution will be based on my judgment of reputable news media and the discussion in the comment section.
Jobs that rank in the top 40% for immunity to AI replacement will resolve at 100%. Jobs in the bottom 40% that are most susceptible to AI replacement will resolve at 0%. For the middle 20% of jobs, where it's unclear or debatable whether they are susceptible to AI replacement, resolution will be at 50%.
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So the resolutions are only about the immunity relative to other jobs, not in absolute? If Day care workers become 99% replaceable, but the rest of the jobs are even higher, then day care workers would resolve YES as immune?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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