there is theoretically an extremely strong case for YES in my opinion

either:

• he has ridiculously strong enough support to amend the constitution fair and square, and therefore would likely win an election

• he becomes eligible via authoritarian fuckery, in which fair elections are probably gone too

if this was metaculus i'd feel pretty good at putting this at above 80%. however, because this is a 4-year-long market that is extremely likely to resolve N/A, i'm not betting more than a token amount of mana on it

@Robincvgr under stood, should probably update to mid terms, at the rate he's going.

Think that's why he is using peeon musk, keeps him hidden in his office.

Making peeon the target.

Are people thinking about this like “Well if he is allowed to run for a third term but everything else is business as usual, will he win?”

What guardrail would fail to stop Trump from amending the constitution but succeed in stopping him from rigging the election?

@NBAP crazy to imagine, but hopefully because of all this insanity in the mid terms they lose the house by ALOT.

I am Canadian the last time in office he did the same tariff shit and forced Canada and Mexico to the table and created the present nafta deal and payed himself on the back, news conference best deal ever.

This time Canada strick back,announced 2 days ago 100% tariff on Tesla lmmfao.

As well a total of 48 lbs of fentanol came from here, yet thousands of firearms came here, the gangbusters use.its crazy

grim thought

The popularity poll came out today it sucked for him.

The people are starting to protest, it's the 60s all over again and for the exact same rights.

The judicial system is fighting back.

The pressure of being the president is astronomical, his diet sucks.

Doesn't look good.

This seems quite likely to me: constitutional eligibility means he probably has broad support?

@AndrewG On that subject, does your definition of "win" here only count if it's "fair"?

The tough questions:

How many Electoral College votes being deemed invalid would it take to sway you into thinking he didn't win?

How many countys' / citizens' votes being declared invalid would it take? What if only certain groups of people are allowed to vote?

Would the market resolve when the election is called? Or after the dust has settled and when the inauguration ceremony is completed?

Do you want to hold shares as judge of this market at the risk of these corner cases happening?

@AndrewG If he becomes constitutionally eligible for a third term, it's more likely a result of authoritarian takeover than a massive increase in popular support, and if that's the case, he'll "win" the election by a wide margin.

could also have a market for if he doesn't become constitutionally eligible but runs anyway