Will I accept an offer to work as a W2 employee in 2025?
Will I accept an offer to work as a W2 employee in 2025?
➕
Plus
5
Ṁ1080
2026
34%
chance

Resolves to YES if I accept such an offer by 11:59pm on New Year's Eve in NY time.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1mo

have you gotten such an offer?

@Bayesian if I go back to my PhD program, I would likely be a W2 employee for the University of Wisconsin; this is my only current ~outstanding offer

1mo

@AndrewG and do you uh plan to go back to your PhD program

1mo

More directly I'll say: how do you want to make this question useful to you, Andrew? Do you want people just to guess randomly based on no info, or do you want people to evaluate some context?

1mo

@Bayesian I am currently "on leave" until September, and currently doing research in California which, if I can successfully convert into a permanent research position at some lab, I would likely choose over continuing my PhD

1mo

@JamesBaker3 thank you, good question

1mo

@JamesBaker3 well, maybe the ideal outcome is to have someone manipulate this market by making me a highly lucrative W2 job offer...

bought Ṁ100 YES1mo

😆

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules