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Will I accept an offer to work as a W2 employee in 2025?
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5
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34%
chance
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Resolves to YES if I accept such an offer by 11:59pm on New Year's Eve in NY time.
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@Bayesian if I go back to my PhD program, I would likely be a W2 employee for the University of Wisconsin; this is my only current ~outstanding offer
More directly I'll say: how do you want to make this question useful to you, Andrew? Do you want people just to guess randomly based on no info, or do you want people to evaluate some context?
@JamesBaker3 well, maybe the ideal outcome is to have someone manipulate this market by making me a highly lucrative W2 job offer...
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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