Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?
Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?
Plus
28
Ṁ7602028
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
A solar flare resulting in "likely one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded" occurred a few days ago, but since I didn't hear about it except from space enthusiasts, I don't think it can be said to have caused widespread global disruption. It did interfere with some radio stuff, though.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/dec/15/nasa-solar-flare-images-radio-interference
Widespread global disruption should be defined better. Radio blackout, internet blackout, electrical blackout, etc.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will astroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth?
2% chance
If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
82% chance
Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?
4% chance
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
46% chance
Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?
15% chance
Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?
26% chance
Will there be a X15 or higher class solar flare observed during solar cycle 25?
12% chance
Will there be a G3 or higher solar storm in the first half of 2025?
63% chance
Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 5 minutes occur by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
30% chance