Will the US have to build Trump a personal prison like Pablo Escobar if he is convicted?
Will the US have to build Trump a personal prison like Pablo Escobar if he is convicted?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ937
2028
9%
chance

Seriously, I see no reasonable way to get convicted for the charges he faces in any of the cases, but particularly the one in Georgia, that he can avoid some sort of detention. If they let him stay at Mar-a-lago or Trump Tower it could be dangerous and allow him to operate no differently than if he were free. This resolves YES if a special facility must be procured or built to house Trump during his imprisonment. Resolves NO if he is allowed house arrest in one of his own properties or is incarcerated in a federal or state facility that is already used to house inmates.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Does this resolve No or N/A if he isn't convicted/isn't detained/dies?

predictedNO 1y

@Frogswap N/A if he dies. No if he is not imprisoned for any reason other than death. Such as not guilty verdict, charges dismissed, plea deal followed by sentence that affirms no incarceration, etc.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules