Will vaccines be banned in the US under Trump, before 2026?

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Here, "ban vaccines" is taken to be broad; if there is consensus of credible reporting that vaccines were banned in some way, resolves YES.

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And also:

https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/will-the-covid-vaccine-be-banned-in-clI8OtuIA0

3mo

If anyone wants to go into more detail, here's my related market:
https://manifold.markets/nonnihil/the-antivax-market-which-vaccines-b

3mo

I assume if one or more vaccines are banned this resolved "YES", not all vaccines have to bed banned as a category, correct?

bought Ṁ50 NO3mo

@Enlil If we interpret it broadly enough, every administration that has held or denied FDA approval for a vaccine has "banned vaccines".

I propose a vaccine basket: pneumonia, covid, flu, hpv, and hepatitis. If one of those is categorically illegal, resolves yes. Otherwise, resolves no even if some vaccine somewhere had its FDA approval revoked.

3mo

@GG it seems the most likely candidate for a ban would be COVID vaccines

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