Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?
Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?
Plus
11
Ṁ1382050
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if, at the start of 2050, all humans were to suddenly vanish from the universe, automated factories would continue to produce and distribute items to other factories either forever or until interrupted by a major change in the natural environment (e.g. heat death of the universe, or the sun going red giant, or lumber trees going extinct).
This market will resolve based on my personal judgement and is quite a ways in the future, so consider that there may be high resolution risk.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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