Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
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Trading - not market creation. Does not include people who were already thought leaders before having a trading record.
Thought leaders could roughly be approximated as having regular influence over thoughts of 5k+ individuals. I'm ok with approximating this by followers on a social media platform.
I might not be proactively looking for these individuals - examples will need to be raised in the comments.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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