Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?
Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?
Basic
23
Ṁ636
2026
95%
chance

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency

Did Trump give Elon and Vivek real influence or a fake role to keep them away from him?

It's not a federal executive department, but they have aspirations of cutting the federal workforce by over 50%.

This market resolves YES if there's a media consensus that DOGE has done something meaningful (i.e. not just write a report, but actually influence the federal budget).

Shutting down the Department of Education might count if it is attributed to Musk/Ramaswamy.

An app to file taxes doesn't seem significant enough unless the IRS loses most of it's funding.

May resolve N/A if ambiguous.

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filled a Ṁ5 YES at 98% order24d

Surely them "shutting down" USAID (even if they're doing it unlawfully) has to count as something meaningful, right?

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 99.0% order19d

@Marnix yeah seems like a clear YES already.

@MartinRandall probably but I'll wait for some time before resolving to see if it's all reversed by courts or something.

1mo

Is there a market for the dept not being shut down by 4 Jul 2026?

I won't trade in this because it's subjective but Musk being able to shut down a government funding bill seems like he and DOGE have significant sway on government policy

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