Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?

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I just realized there are 100+ markets asking if AI will wipe out humanity, which is ridiculous since there is an ACTUAL PRESSING ISSUE burning the world alive

Also if I still remotley care about manifold by 2035 I'll extend it (and while I hope to live past 2100 the odds are against me so oh well)

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Yeah, the disparity is pretty absurd - I don't think either one is going to wipe out humanity, but all the focus on future AI which may or may not be hostile, while climate change is currently happening and will certainly get worse if we don't do something about it, is silly.

Also, I'd suggest putting an explicit timeframe on this, like "by 2035," "by 2050," "by 2100," etc. - otherwise people are just gonna buy YES since there's no mechanism for a NO resolution.

Voting yes just to manifest a quicker apocalyptic end.

The only way this could be resolved no is if something else wipes out humanity first…?

predictedNO

I actually already made one like this, as well as for other x-risks like nuclear war. They just haven't gotten as much attention as the AI ones.

Is there a time frame for this?

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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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