How long will xkcd remain thrice-weekly?
How long will xkcd remain thrice-weekly?
Plus
11
Ṁ10922031
98.5%
2024
89%
2025
85%
2026
82%
2027
80%
2028
74%
2029
65%
2030
Resolved
YES2023
At the end of each year, resolves YES if Randall Munroe's webcomic xkcd (xkcd.com) remains thrice-weekly, as it has been since 2005. If Randall announces that the comic is ending or assuming a lighter schedule, resolves NO. I will allow temporary breaks of up to two weeks, but not longer - so two weeks of no comics would cause a NO resolution on all remaining years.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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