Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025?
Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025?
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26
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2026
24%
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If an oral insulin pill is available by December 31, 2025, this will resolve to YES. If not, it will resolve to NO.

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predictedNO 1y

As a T1D reliant on a pump to provide insulin, I think this resolution is extremely unlikely in the next 5 years. I am still taking the same insulin I took when I was diagnosed 10+ years ago. Most advancements have come from new insulin delivery devices (pens, pumps, etc) and new blood sugar monitoring devices (CGMs). The only related advancements in insulin I am aware of were FIASP insulins, which, while faster acting, are taking forever for anyone to adopt. Oral insulin seems like a nightmare from a fast-acting perspective, and in the form of a pill means it would be so delayed in entering your bloodstream you would likely have to take it like an hour before a meal or have massive blood sugar spikes. Perhaps an inhaled spray form would be feasible and fast-acting, similar to how glucagon pens have evolved into nasal sprays for quickly raising low blood sugars, but a pill form of insulin seems unlikely. All that to say, even if one was just starting to be developed, it would probably take 3-5+ years for it to pass FDA approval. Tech moves so slowly for diabetics, and especially for insulin-dependent diabetics such as those with T1D.

1y

@Supermaxman I mean, I think oral insulin can be available while still being very unable to entirely replace injections. Yeah, sure, it would make a lot of sense if someday I can replace only my long acting. But... yeah I don't expect a pill form of insulin in two years.

predictedNO 1y

@April That’s fair, it’s been so long since I’ve used long-acting so I totally forgot. That use case makes sense for sure.

1y

This seems likely to happen sometime, but are there any candidates that are close? Oramed had one in a Phase III trial earlier this year, but it failed to show efficacy. I couldn't find any others in clinical trials in the US in a quick search. I think it usually takes longer than two years from starting clinical trials to availability in the US. I suppose it's also possible for one to be approved in another country, or made available somewhere with more lax regulations.

1y

Shouldn't this question close at the end of 2025?

predictedYES 1y

@TimDuffy Excellent point! Thanks for pointing this out. I've added a description.

1y

@DanielGallant Good description but I'm actually referring to this:

The market is currently set to close for trading in just a couple days, which can be extended if you click on the close date.

predictedYES 1y

@TimDuffy Forgive the Homer Simpson voice, but, D'Oh! Fixed.

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