When will manifold shut down?
When will manifold shut down?
➕
Plus
42
Ṁ6460
2100
2%
Before 2026
6%
Before 2027
9%
Before 2028
13%
Before 2029
13%
Before 2030
19%
Before 2040
25%
Before 2050
Resolved
NO
Before 2025
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


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answered10mo
Before 2025
bought Ṁ38 Before 2025 NO1mo

@Daniel_MC Resolves NO

1mo

@lisamarsh ❤️

reposted 2mo

Almost free 4%

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
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