Will the Trump administration take specific actions undermining support for Taiwan during Trump's term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if ANY of the following occur during Trump's presidency with Rubio as Secretary of State:
Official Policy Changes:
Formal recognition of PRC sovereignty over Taiwan
Explicit withdrawal of previous US security commitments to Taiwan
Public statement by Trump or Secretary Rubio renouncing Taiwan Relations Act
Military/Security Support:
Reduction of >90% in total military aid compared to 2024 levels
Withdrawal of US military advisors from Taiwan reported or announced
Diplomatic Actions:
Closure of de facto embassy (American Institute in Taiwan)
Formal agreement with PRC limiting official US-Taiwan contacts
Public opposition to Taiwan's participation in international organizations
Resolution Conditions
Market resolves as N/A if:
Trump does not take office
Marco Rubio is not confirmed as Secretary of State
1,000
3.00What if the closure of the de facto embassy is in context of evacuation in case of armed conflict even if America intends to defend Taiwan?
"Public opposition to Taiwan's participation in international organizations"
I feel like this one is a lot softer than the others. Just to take an example, Clinton did this and also sent carriers to waters near Taiwan when China launched the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00