Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential elections?
Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential elections?
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Feb 11, 4:14pm: Will Jair Bolsonaro run in the next Brazilian presidential elections? → Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential elections?
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Making a campaign but ultimately not being able to be a candidate because of loss of political rights counts as running?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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