https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
Emalil to Satya was sent on Jan 25, 2025
https://x.com/citnotcitta/status/1892362691383029997
Original tweet is from Aug 21, 2024
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
@NebulaByte if this was sent on Dec 27, 2024. Why is the market going up for this option JUST now?
Oh no maybe that doesn't make sense given how he worded the tweet
@NicoDelon yeah he essentially said it wasn’t Sarah but some other guest TBD. Nobody should hold this. It’s ruled out.
@LeoSpitz Are you aware of this tweet https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1872722285066662097, which was posted about a month after the release of the Gwern podcast?
Here are some earlier clarifications by the creator:
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(Temporarily pinning this because it is very difficult to find these comments buried so deep in this very large market, & I expect bettors will find them relevant as this question keeps coming up.)