Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Plus

Ṁ469

2100

49%

chance

ALL

This is obviously something you can game by botting for views so don't do it. They will hunt you down.

When some market hits 1 million views on the official view counter, we will look at the total traders stat and see if it is 10k or greater. If it is, resolves Yes. Otherwise, resolves No.

If no market reaches 1 million views, this will just not resolve...or N/A or whatever but expect to be in it for the long term if you bet on this.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Manifold

#Meta-Forecasting

#Meta-markets

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Is there a way to check which markets currently have the most views?

11mo

@Tripping Probably querying Supabase. I believe at the time I looked it up before making this, the leader was this one:

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?NO‌

It's at over 200k but less than 250k.

My understanding is this view counter is 'unique' views, and that is what this market resolves based on.

Who are they

@VAPOR James.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

Related questions

What is this?

Related questions