The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
This is a copy of /IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2035-will-it-be-possi but for a 10 years longer timespan.
Mar 27, 7:03am: By the end of 2035, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally? → By the end of 2045, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally?
1,000
3.00I'd really like to know what people think about this! How might this happen? Who/where would research/invest/experiment with it? Do you think it'll happen in the US/EU?
@StrayClimb there are so many hard, but useful, things to do in medical science. Even if it was possible, making males able to make eggs, get pregnant, grow a placenta, give birth, and THEN somehow operationalizing it all so that it's a safe procedure for the parent AND for the fetus is just a waste of an enormous investment for basically no gain.
We can't even do stuff like make people immune to random bat viruses or even agree that it would be a good idea to do so.
This should be zero 👌
@MarkIngraham Yes, that's another reason I'm short this market. Not only is it super hard, dangerous, etc. but it's also pretty unnecessary.
@StrayClimb by the time something like this was even possible humans would die of biowarfare, it would never be a factor
@MarkIngraham you don't need to tell me twice. My actual prediction is <15%, but I think there are also people who will buy in higher than that - so I'll wait to see what they think before pushing price down lower myself.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00