There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030
There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030
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i.e. a service where if you agree, you will promise that in the event of a dispute, you and others will submit information to an LLM/AI system for evaluation of the dispute.
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bought Ṁ10 YES5mo
Will somebody build it? Yep. Will it be good? Probably not the first one, at least.
https://x.com/gallabytes/status/1822020815287939567
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If there is a company offering such a service prior to 2030 and it fails completely and burns to the ground, would this resolve YES since the service was offered?
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench
Using LLMs for legal arbitration - this seems like a great idea (although potentially could go wrong). A good enough AI could be more trustworthy than humans. #ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/there-will-be-a-company-which-offer https://t.co/FOugagwVi8
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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