Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?
Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?
Basic
8
Ṁ2202026
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any genre, but fiction. Fictionalized life history/autobiography counts
Must be published after today
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Aella be arrested before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
73% chance
Will Aella spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?
6% chance
Will my novel be published (or be on track to be) by mid-2026?
28% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
75% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
40% chance
Will Aella release a AI girlfriend in collaboration with @realGeorgeHotz by 2026
10% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
71% chance
By 2028, will Aella announce she's in love with an AI boyfriend?
7% chance
Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?
76% chance