Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026
➕
Plus
8
Ṁ303
2027
47%
chance

Lost for any reason. Within 2026 calendar year.

Counts

  • Crash

  • Lost

  • Captured

  • Disappeared

  • Stolen by adversary

Does not count

  • Unusable plane due to bugs

  • Repossessed by creditors

  • Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access

  • We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional

  • Sold or transferred to ally or other

  • Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:

    • Lost is defined by whether the plane is usable after landing.

    • If repairs return the plane to service, it does not count as lost.

    • A clear dividing line should be established, considering repair durations (e.g., repairs should not exceed six months).

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filled a Ṁ7 NO at 39% order

Just to clarify, shot down counts too?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen if it's not usable to fight anymore then lost, yes.

filled a Ṁ30 NO at 47% order

If the plane is damaged in a crash/accident but remains useable after repairs, does it count as lost?

@MaxWilliams I'm trying to make the divider whether it's usable after landing. If repairs return it to service then I'd say it wasn't lost. I don't believe I've heard of cases where repairs take say 6months - I'd expect the dividing line to be clear. Of course reality does have a way. If there's a case that's close we can debate here and / or use LLMs to evaluate if it was really lost (ie out of action).

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