Will a Republican win New Mexico for President by 2050?
Will a Republican win New Mexico for President by 2050?
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4
Ṁ412050
70%
chance
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1W
1M
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Resolves YES if a Republican wins New Mexico in a presidential election before 2050 (in one of the 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, or 2048 elections). Resolves NO if they lose all of them.
If another party displaces the Republicans and they win, I'll still resolve this as NO.
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@basketball stars Awaiting this one! Though it's undoubtedly unlikely, I'm cautiously optimistic about a Republican victory in the near future given the current patterns and demographics in New Mexico. If the party's national tide shifts in their favor, I'll be watching with interest.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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