Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
Premium
16
Ṁ48012026
58%
0
18%
1
8%
2
6%
3
7%
4-5
4%
6-7
This is a derivative market. It will resolve exactly according to the resolution of the following questions:
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?12%
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?2%
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025?9%
Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2025?10%
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?11%
Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2025?22%
See also:
Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?
Previously:
Nuclear risk 2024: How many of the 8 linked questions will resolve Yes?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?
13% chance
Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?
What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025?
5.5m
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
20% chance