Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?
Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?
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Starship has flown 5 times so far, all since Artemis I; however, none have flown to orbit. Will it fly, successfully and orbitally, more times before Artemis II, than SLS flies in its entire program?
Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea level. Success criteria will be taken from the Wikipedia launch list page.
Close date will be extended as needed until the SLS program ends, or SLS has flown more times than Starship flew between Artemis I and II.
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Eric Burger is pretty confident Artemis 2 is not happening next year, which gives Starship a lot of time to rack up orbital launches.
bought Ṁ1 YES4mo
Does partial success count?
Does SLS also have to be orbital and successful, or just launch?
Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea level
Based on twitter discussion, to match the intent of the original inspiration tweet:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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