Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?
This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.
As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.
1,000
3.00Posted earlier today:
The thesis that they both need each other too much to publicly disparage (especially over the next 9 months) seems to be panning out.
@elf 8 years ago today, 9 days into his first term, Donald Trump replaced the Chiefs of Staff on the National Security Council and with the then-omnipresent Steve Bannon. Give it time. One of them is going to fuck this up.
@elf yep, I'm super comfortable with my NO position for now.
Manifold is largely a pro-Democrat, anti-Trump and anti-Musk crowd so it's not surprising this is sitting above 50%; people want it to happen.
Mainstream media will peddle the, "cracks are forming", "Elon did this", "Trump said that", agenda - perhaps in a similar manner to the "weird" campaign targeted towards JD Vance / Trump, which never really caught on - because it's attractive news. But objective analyses point in a different direction. I enjoy the Economist's simple thesis:
Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump fall out?
No. Though Trump is famously intolerant of competing egos, the benefit for Musk of staying on the president’s good side is too great to squander.
Of note is the community forecast (n = 1,000) for this Metaculus question, Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?, which is due to be revealed in two days. I fully expect it to be between 20-35%.
@vitamind I'm deeply skeptical of The FT's thesis here. I'm inherently skeptical of any argument that Elon is a purely rational actor to begin with, but I think the FT's prediction here ignores Musk's ideological drive entirely.
Of course Musk and Trump are motivated by Money. It'd be stupid to pretend otherwise. I think both are also influenced heavily by a desire for respect and notoriety - but I think the primary factor influencing both men's actions right now are their individual desires to reshape the course of human events to "benefit humanity." Elon keeps saying it's what's motivating him. Trump's also made it clear he thinks he alone can save society. Trump's probably lying about what's motivating him, but I don't think Elon is. . Both could be lying about their underlying motivations, but I don't have any reason to doubt them on it. I think Trump's primary motivations are revenge and historical notoriety, though after his assassination attempt, I believe he's also started believing his own hype that he was chosen by God to save humanity.
Ideologies are at their strongest when they are pointing the same direction. The moment they start to misalign, that strength weakens, like between two magnets. I believe Elon and Trump are in lockstep right now because they share a core ideological belief in inherently conspiratorial thought. They both believe they are strong, both believe they are right, and both believe that they are Good, their enemies are Evil, and that because of that their ideas will Save Humanity. Neither one believes anyone else - and especially not anyone who Disagrees with them - should be allowed to have a true check on their power to implement their plans. Anyone disagreeing is almost certainly Evil and will stop Good.
They also, crucially, both currently believe that the other one is aligned perfectly with them. What happens when something rattles that belief? If, say, Trump continues to leave AI in the hands of idiots who don't want what's best for humanity, like Altman? If, say, Elon tries to push back on Trump's obviously righteous hatred for green energy and electric vehicles? If, say, they fail to root out everyone who's not aligned with their goals from government? The moment either one sees the other as incompetent, irrational, or not being fully devoted to their cause, the relationship's done for.
@Marnix I mean a lot of this is plausible, yes, and you've clearly though about this deeply, but it doesn't really feel like a strong rebuttal, in any form, against the fact that Trump has put Elon in a position of such importance and power. Like you ask these questions,
If Trump continues to leave AI in the hands of idiots who don't want what's best for humanity, like Altman?
If Elon tries to push back on Trump's obviously righteous hatred for green energy and electric vehicles?
If, say, they fail to root out everyone who's not aligned with their goals from government?
but elaborate no further? The Altman spat was addressed by Trump: "Elon hates people, so do I" - is there still something there? Yes, but again, and as it stands, this feels like people are clutching at straws trying to make this into a Trump-Elon spat. Trump's anti-green energy and anti-EV stance - Elon helped him win the Presidency knowing that! Failing to root out everyone who is anti-Trump and anti-Musk both doesn't seem important nor likely not to happen.
They also, crucially, both currently believe that the other one is aligned perfectly with them
They don't believe that. How can you think this while continuously pointing out the various places where their beliefs and motivations diverge?
@Shai I know their beliefs and motivations aren't aligned. I don't think they know how misaligned they are.
I think the yes people fundamentally misunderstand Elon & Trump.
You cannot operate at the highest level in any domain if you have no ability to restrain/moderate yourself
The headlines may portray them as reckless & mercurial but they (mostly) know when to turn that on/off when it’s in their best interest to do so.
You don’t ascend corporate & political hierarchies without that ability.
just over 9 months to go…..
There's reporting (eg. https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-trouble-with-elon) that Musk has become significantly more reckless and unprincipled in the last few years. Trump had a number of big breakups with his cabinet in his previous term. Even if the average person at the top of corporate and political hierarchies can turn it off, I don't know if either of them can. Honestly, if Musk could, we wouldn't have had this big fight on Twitter today, which gained precisely zero for him, except for perhaps catharsis.
Was thinking about the best counterarguments to bring up (e.g. Cave Diver pedo, funding secured tweet, Jan 6th etc.)
But I think there's a salience/availability bias at play
The memorable incidents/headline events are much less frequent than the day to day work of running complex organisations with thousands of employees that move towards + achieve incredibly ambitious goals in highly competitive environments (reusable rockets, becoming president as a political outsider, popularizing EVs etc.)
Its easy to overlook the day to day work since its more mundane + arcane & hence harder to appreciate
@Gabrielle fair point, I was writing out my previous reply before I saw your comment but I think it also applies to what you said
The Sam Harris article & other reporting like it should be counterbalanced with some of the things he's achieved over the last few years.
e.g. to name a few:
building xAI cluster in 19 days (a process that Jensen says would normally take multiple years)
Starlink & Starship development + chopstick catch
Significantly increased political & cultural influence
So he's definitely capable of being reckless but there's also a number of remarkable successes that are only possible with restraint & competence. I mean, I can't think of anyone that is even close to operating on his level across multiple domains.
That's not to say I think he or Trump are perfect / never make mistakes / are morally upstanding etc. Just that polarizing figures are hard to analyze objectively
@elf I used to be sure one had to be a particularly/extraordinarily capable person in order to become US president. Then I watched the first Trump term, and was forced to change my view. I now believe presidents can be merely normal-human, or in some cases much worse, with all the failings that implies, because the American system for selecting presidents doesn't filter nearly as strongly as I thought for competence.
@itsTomekK This market is waiting for your bet :) https://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-criticizes-musk-within-a-year
