Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?
Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?
➕
Plus
41
Ṁ2254
2035
34%
chance

Got a bit of interest in the 2031 market with a generally low probability estimate in the first few hours, so here's one with a longer timeframe.

DNA has a very high information density, and methods for random access have been improving.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/370524323_DNA_storage_in_thermoresponsive_microcapsules_for_repeated_random_multiplexed_data_access

Will this be in use by 12th February 2035? (Deliberately setting a random mid-month date to reduce end-of-year resolution spikes.)

By "in use" I mean either you can buy it for a not-completely-unaffordable price, or, more likely, there are credible reports that a company is using it for non-gimicky reasons. So I require not just that it's possible, but that it's moderately practical.

As both of these are somewhat subjective, I won't bet in this market. If anybody has an idea for making one of the above less subjective, I'd be interested to hear it. Early bettors, beware that I might add more specific criteria in line with the spirit of the question. I'll give a chance for objections if I do.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

12 February is Charles Darwin's birthday, a cute choice for a day to resolve a biology themed market.

1y

@AgenticLondoner haha, nice. I wish that was intentional. Maybe I'll start doing things like that. :)

1y

Some things that might be more objective:

  • Sales figures reported in a storage industry market report by a reputable 3rd-party source

  • Listed for sale in a product by a top-10 storage vendor, with at least one reported sale

  • Available as a consumer product from a reputable vendor, with price tag and listed as 'in stock'

  • You successfully buy one for a price < $x

Those would all need to be fleshed out a bit, but hopefully something along those lines is helpful.

1y

@EvanDaniel thanks, I'll have a think

1y

@EvanDaniel I've finally got around to actually thinking about this. My first problem is general ignorance. So I wouldn't know where to find a "storage industry market report", and wouldn't know how to assess the reputability of a 3rd-party source. I don't know how to find which storage vendors are top 10. (I've googled it and found some lists, but I don't know how to tell if these are what I'm looking for.)

I think my general approach is going to be "negative until proven positive". Come the close date, I'll do some research myself to see if these things are available and if I can't, I'll let bettors know that I'm drawing a blank and invite YES bettors (or anybody else) to find evidence if they're able where I'm not. I think the examples you listed sound like good types of evidence, but I'm hesitant to codify them in the description due to my aforementioned ignorance.

Out of interest, I notice you haven't bet in the market. Is that because you're not interested, or do you think the subjectivity is putting you off? Would you be more likely to bet if I adopted a version of the criteria you suggest?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules