High propensity is defined as anyone who has voted in a primary or midterm election since 2017. Low propensity is defined as everyone who hasn't done that.
For example, if high propensity voters voted D+2, and low propensity voters voted R+7, this market would resolve to D+8 - D+12 as high propensity voters voted D+9 relative to low propensity voters.
Inspired by this tweet/thread https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747671830502981691
Resolves based on most accurate data available, potentially some time after the election is finished. If high propensity voters vote more republican than low propensity voters, that resolves as D+4 or less.
I will not bet.
1,000
3.00The fact that this trend is entirely concentrated among Ds is bullish for anti-incumbency believers
@FreshFrier sorry, I meant these two tweets
https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747664129345597449?s=20
https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747664129345597449?s=20
The fact that low-propensity democrats are abandoning Biden at astonishing rates while ~zero Republicans do the same with Trump is kind of extraordinary
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00