Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI/ASI/Digial-Superintelligence to figure out why he was wrong predicting AI would destroy humanity.
Resolves yes if this happens by 2040.
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In the unlikely event that AI destroys humanity but there's still someone and/or something with the ability and desire to resolve this market, how should it resolve?
I'm curious how Eliezer et al interpret the anthropic issues with predictions like these. It's not as if he'll get to have the satisfaction of using AGI/ASI to prove why he was right, and there's more than zero branches (according to MWI followers like himself) where we survive regardless of who had the better argument.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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