What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
Basic
249
Ṁ80k
2026
38%
OpenAI
19%
Google Deepmind
16%
Anthropic
10%
XAI
9%
Deepseek
2%
Safe Superintelligence Inc
2%
Meta
1.3%
Other

2022 would resolve as OpenAI, Deepmind, ???

**revised: OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind

Based on social media buzz, search trends, etc. — i.e. purely on buzz/prestige

50/30/20 resolution to the most impactful in public opinion during the year

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bought Ṁ10 OpenAI YES5d

OpenAI is nearly guaranteed to be first by inertia.

Even if GPT-5 is surpassed in fall/winter 2025.

The prevalence of ChatGPT will inherently be much higher than Gemini, Grok, Claude, or Deepseek

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

See Google Trends

US: last year

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=ChatGPT,Deepseek,Gemini,Claude,Grok

Worldwide: last 90 days

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=ChatGPT,Deepseek,Gemini,Claude,Grok

As of now it's clearly

  1. ChatGPT + Deepseek on Jan 28th (only because of NVDA stock)

  2. Deepseek (deflated due to lack of servers) + Gemini (mostly due to integration into android + Google)

  1. Grok (rising with Grok 3 release + integration to X)

  1. Claude (may rise with release of Claude 4)

bought Ṁ10 OpenAI YES1mo

@mods maybe this can resolve by poll or something

1mo

@ismellpillows I think it resolves at the end of 2025

28d

@ismellpillows Resolve by google trends is also a good choice. Currently ambiguous.

3mo

I can't bet on this without getting errors

bought Ṁ5 Meta NO

Is there a way to get the 4 huggingfaces combined?

9mo

I wonder what happened to this market? A month ago it was barely getting any trades. Now it is constantly flying around with extremely different values for each contender. Just look at that graph!

bought Ṁ1 Apple YES9mo

@Gigacasting Could you edit the "Deepmind" entry to be Google Deepmind? Right now there's "Deepmind", which seems to be heavily traded, and way down there is "Google". Probably the "Google" one should N/A so there isn't confusion.

9mo

@ChrisPrichard Done. Unfortunately Gigacasting has left manifold for many months. Imo the market should be taken over by mods and we should clarify the resolution criteria because they are very subjective and the market creator is probably not going to return

9mo

@Bayesian Oh yeah - given the subjective nature here,the resolution is a bit of a mess if there isn't one disinterested party.

9mo

@ChrisPrichard gigacasting is active

9mo

@jim oh wow. good to know

8mo

turns out this seems like a myth / illusion bc of some limit orders being filled and/or bugs

8mo

@jim How do you know gigacasting is active? If it's because it says he bet recently that is not reliable info, check the markets in question and his bets aren't there

8mo

@Bayesian yeah i was probably wrong

bought Ṁ1 NVIDIA YES9mo

Surely Nvidia more than Stability for 2022. Nvidia 100% counts as an AI lab.

9mo

Can Cognition be added? They just debuted their first model Devin 2 months ago, I think they'll see phenomenal growth in the next year

bought Ṁ1 Other YES9mo

Could we add xAI?

answered2y
OpenAI
9mo

i legit didn't see the 50/30/20 thing, invested way too much, but always figured i would be able to get out before 2025... i don't really understand limit orders. anyone have any advice for withdrawing some of my money from this market?

9mo

@Gigacasting Does Deepmind include the entire Google operation? (Deep Brain, Google Brain or whatever it's called now)

1y

Deepseek is about to release 145B MoE

2y
29%
OpenAI
22%
Other
18%
DeepMind
11%
Anthropic
38%
OpenAI
19%
Google Deepmind
16%
Anthropic
10%
XAI
50%54%
OpenAI
30%21%
DeepMind
20%17%
Anthropic
0.0%
Stability.AI
50%41%
OpenAI
30%1.4%
Midjourney
10%9%
Meta's AI lab
10%6%
Mistral
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