2022 would resolve as OpenAI, Deepmind, ???
**revised: OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind
Based on social media buzz, search trends, etc. — i.e. purely on buzz/prestige
50/30/20 resolution to the most impactful in public opinion during the year
OpenAI is nearly guaranteed to be first by inertia.
Even if GPT-5 is surpassed in fall/winter 2025.
The prevalence of ChatGPT will inherently be much higher than Gemini, Grok, Claude, or Deepseek
See Google Trends
US: last year
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=ChatGPT,Deepseek,Gemini,Claude,Grok
Worldwide: last 90 days
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=ChatGPT,Deepseek,Gemini,Claude,Grok
As of now it's clearly
ChatGPT + Deepseek on Jan 28th (only because of NVDA stock)
Deepseek (deflated due to lack of servers) + Gemini (mostly due to integration into android + Google)
Grok (rising with Grok 3 release + integration to X)
Claude (may rise with release of Claude 4)
Is there a way to get the 4 huggingfaces combined?
I wonder what happened to this market? A month ago it was barely getting any trades. Now it is constantly flying around with extremely different values for each contender. Just look at that graph!
@Gigacasting Could you edit the "Deepmind" entry to be Google Deepmind? Right now there's "Deepmind", which seems to be heavily traded, and way down there is "Google". Probably the "Google" one should N/A so there isn't confusion.
@ChrisPrichard Done. Unfortunately Gigacasting has left manifold for many months. Imo the market should be taken over by mods and we should clarify the resolution criteria because they are very subjective and the market creator is probably not going to return
Can Cognition be added? They just debuted their first model Devin 2 months ago, I think they'll see phenomenal growth in the next year
i legit didn't see the 50/30/20 thing, invested way too much, but always figured i would be able to get out before 2025... i don't really understand limit orders. anyone have any advice for withdrawing some of my money from this market?
@Gigacasting Does Deepmind include the entire Google operation? (Deep Brain, Google Brain or whatever it's called now)