People are asking which charges.
This claim was created 21 March 2023.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump
Trump was indicted on state charges in a March 2023 indictment in New York. He faced 34 criminal charges of falsifying business records in the first degree related to payments made to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.[19][23]
(It seems these indictments were dated 30 March 2023 so slightly after question created but it would have been known this was at least reaching its decision point.)
There were further indictments a little later in June and August 2023 but given the timing of creation of this question, I think anyone sensible attempting to clarify which charges should focus most attention if not all attention on these 34 falsifying business records charges.
On these 34, Judge has decided on unconditional discharge sentence i.e. no punishment but 'the charges' now convictions still stand.
I think this represents a reasonable case for resolving no.
However, I can also see a case for uncertainty about whether it is all charges for which there is indictment or just some charges (that might or might not arise later) have to be dismissed for a yes resolution so I admit that a case for N/A for ambiguity could be made.
If it is no or N/A per the above analysis then the percentage should be traded down from 50% so my analysis above is not really in line with market odds..
To argue for a yes resolution you have to allow 1) it to be some of the charges not all, and 2) Allow it be charges that occur later not just the ones approaching indictment decision at time of market creation. This seems an unlikely pair of decisions to me but perhaps the market is sensible to attribute some possibility of this. That makes the market % look more sensible and probably also adds weight to an N/A decision being appropriate.
I have not traded on this question.
@BTE It’s not really obvious to me that this should resolve yes? Classic underspecified gigacasting market, but only a minority were dismissed
@DanMan314 I don’t know. Certainly it was written before all the indictments came down. But still dropped charges are drop charges. It’s unclear to me why it shouldn’t resolve Yes. Can we get some others to comment?