Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?
Will humanity produce it’s first in lab net positive fusion energy breakthrough by end 2028 ?
Plus
16
Ṁ6302028
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Net positive fusion energy would mean more energy out the experiment than energy in globally.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Amaryllis Nope, this experiment does not take into account the energy used by the laser in the ratio, it count the gain starting at the output of the laser making this experiment still a overall loss of energy.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
75% chance
Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
13% chance
Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?
61% chance
Will Tokamak Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will General Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2029?
11% chance
Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?
17% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?
25% chance