Which of these countries will be the first independent?
Which of these countries will be the first independent?
Plus
14
Ṁ3092030
24%
Catalonia
50%
Scotland
10%
Corsica
3%
Tibet
4%
Hong Kong
10%
North Ireland
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*Northern Ireland
How would this resolve if Northern Ireland left the UK and joined the Republic of Ireland without ever being independent?
@JoshuaWilkes If Northern Ireland joins the Republic of Ireland, it might have the same status it had with the UK. My question really speaks of an independent country, a country which manages to detach itself from the country to which it belonged.
@HermaeusMora Yes, I agree with this interpretation. That's why I thought the clarification necessary :D
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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