When will the United States end Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing?
When will the United States end Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing?
Basic
9
Ṁ2562070
67%
Before 2070
59%
Before 2050
59%
Before 2060
32%
Before 2040
15%
Before 2030
The USA is currently the only country in the world that sentences people to life in prison without parole for crimes committed before turning 18.
As of February 10th, 2023, 31 states allow JLWOP sentencing, of which 24 states have at least one person actively serving a JLWOP sentence.
Answers resolve to YES once JLWOP sentencing is illegal in every U.S. jurisdiction (including non-contiguous states and territories). A federal moratorium doesn't count unless it is A) explicitly defined as indefinite and B) survives at least one presidential term from two different parties.
Answers resolve to NO if a JLWOP sentence is possible somewhere in the United States on the first day of the decade.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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