Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
💎
Premium
91
Ṁ11k
2035
42%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.

2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
8mo

Does it count if the AI itself assassinates the CEO?

8mo
8mo

“Any deliberate action to kill” does this count things that wouldn’t typically be counted as assassinations, like domestic violence?

bought Ṁ50 YES8mo

Would this have counted, had it been Sam Altman instead of Elon Musk?

https://www.nysun.com/article/elon-musk-says-two-mentally-ill-people-tried-to-assassinate-him

8mo

@colorednoise There’s a good chance Elon will count as “CEO of a major AI lab” soon

8mo

@colorednoise No. Just claims from the alleged victims do not qualify.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules