Will Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?
Will Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?
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60%
life will NOT even be found there in the first place.
17%
YES, Life will be found and it will have similar redox chemistry.
23%
NO, Life will be found and it will not have similar redox chemistry.
Some useful starting links:
1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enceladus
2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrothermal_vent
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Why not run this market until an Enceladus mission actually confirms?
Closing at year end locks user’s mana in until resolution, which will put off players if you’re not going to resolve until there’s an Enceladus mission which answers the question. Given there’s not one on the cards AFAIK that could mean locking Mana up for decades.
Great question though!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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