Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?
Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?
Plus
58
Ṁ9371resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ283 | |
2 | Ṁ226 | |
3 | Ṁ216 | |
4 | Ṁ211 | |
5 | Ṁ166 |
Sort by:
predictedNO 1y
@IsaacKing Almost all of these experiments, and the commercial ventures (e.g., turn $100 into $1,000), seem to bank on the catchiness of the idea rather than particularly useful output coming from the model. The advice is just too generic, e.g.,

I would think there are already many such accounts. Anyone with a bot that generates you Stable Diffusion images would count and likely get a lot of followers. Or the "thread reader" bot(I don't know if that's an "AI", but it's a computer program). Or the "dril_gpt2" account made in 2019, I remember the creator filtered dozens of GPT responses for each actual one, but the outputs were generated by a variant of GPT-2 finetuned on dril's tweets.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will an AI generated Instagram video reach 10M views before 2025?
26% chance
Will an AI generated X/Twitter video reach 20M views before 2025?
14% chance
Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?
59% chance
Will an AI generated Instagram video reach 20M views before 2025?
19% chance
Will any Twitter account with at least 100,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?
21% chance
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
98% chance
Will an AI have >20 million Twitter followers by the 2025?
10% chance
Will an AI have >1 million Twitter followers by 2025?
86% chance
Will an AI have >100 million Twitter followers this decade?
10% chance
Will I have 5000 Twitter followers at any point in 2025?
44% chance