Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Plus
12
Ṁ1742040
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Compared to average outdoor levels.
"Significant" is subjective here, but it needs to be a large enough effect that people would actually care to fix their air quality. (For example, asbestos has a "significant" health risk.)
Resolves once there's a well-established scientific consensus.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
Assuming the research was done well, then it's a question of is the effect large enough to care. Does a 1% increase in test response time and 4% increase in test throughput translate into, say, a 1% increase in productivity for well-compensated knowledge workers?
predictedYES 1y
@IsaacKing Responses per minute on the Stroop test, the test where a color word is printed in some color that does not match the word and you need to state the color the word is printed in.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
79% chance
Does 3000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
90% chance
Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition?
88% chance
Does Covid-19 have hidden long-term negative health effects?
71% chance
Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030
86% chance
Do the high CO2 levels in cars increase 'accidents leading to death' by >=10%?
31% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?
37% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050?
34% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reach 450 ppm (YES) or 400 ppm (NO) first?
95% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 425 ppm in 2025?
39% chance