Here's how this works:
Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.
If I don't want to answer the question, I'll resolve the option to N/A. (I'm generally pretty open about stuff.)
Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and to PROB if it was partly right and partly wrong.
Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. I won't bet on the options before resolving then.
I will generally wait for several people to trade in an option before resolving it.
This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.
Have at it!
Thanks to @firstuserhere for this market idea. You can find their original market here.
1,000
3.00Difficult to remember. I once tried to read the whole Harry Potter series in a day (don't remember where I succeeded; may have only gotten to book 5 or 6), but that's not a single book. I suspect it hasn't happened, but I'm not sure.
I had skimmed a few pages, and put it on my list of "books I'd eventually like to read but realistically won't have time for any time soon".
I try to make more imaginative jokes than this.
Surprisingly though, none of my friends who frequently make rather unimaginative jokes about my name have done this either.
Fine in general, not fine when the minor was pressured into it or is not mentally capable of understanding the situation. (<12 years old or thereabouts.)
Can't say for sure, but seems unlikely. I don't have many close friends, and they're all pretty reasonable people.
(I think this answer being at 60% was people correctly noting that I have many controversial beliefs, but failing to update on the fact that I'm very public about those beliefs, so I'll pretty quickly drive away anyone who finds that to be a deal-breaker.)
So much mana lying on the table for those willing to do some research...
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/what-programming-language-or-large
I know English, am decent but not fluent at French. I know bits and pieces of Hebrew and German, but not enough to be useful.
Would be nice to convert mana into money, but buying a car seems like a very inefficient way to do that. I don't need a car nor have enough mana to afford one that way.
My father's a professor of mathematics, my mother's a linguist, and my sister's studying criminal psychology. In a pure IQ sense I'm probably second after my dad.
"Think about" is a low bar, pretty much any "think about" answer will resolve YES.
Even this one?
@IsaacKing the classic "don't think of a purple elephant" scenario. power of suggestion makes for easy payouts I suppose?